Road to BAL 2027 Power Rankings: Al Ittihad Lead the Elite 16, and the Hosts Move Up

Sixteen clubs are left in the 2027 Road to BAL. Thirteen came through the group phase in Tripoli, Brazzaville, Hoima and the NASDEC Sports Complex, and three go straight into the Elite 16 after playing in the 2026 BAL: Nairobi City Thunder, Dar City and JCA Kings. The West plays from 9 to 15 November at the Palais des Sports de Treichville in Abidjan, the East from 23 to 29 November at the Kasarani Indoor Arena in Nairobi. Each division plays two groups of four, and the top two in each group reach the semi-finals.

Five clubs reach the BAL: both finalists in each division, and the better of the two clubs that win the third-place games. So the number this ranking is built on is each club's chance of a BAL ticket, by either route.

To estimate it, The BAL Report rated every club twice. The club rating comes from results: all 629 BAL and Road to BAL games in its database since 2021, adjusted for the opponent and weighted towards recent games. The roster rating comes from the players: each one is rated on every box score he has played in the two competitions, and each club gets the minutes-weighted average of its roster. The two are combined into one power rating, the two host clubs get a home-court edge, and the Elite 16 was played out 100,000 times.

The short version: one club is a near-certainty, four more have a better than even chance, and the two hosts are the clubs the update moves most.

How the chances are calculated

Every percentage in this article comes from playing the Elite 16 out 100,000 times on a computer, in three steps.

1. Rate every club. Each club gets a power rating: the number of points per game it would beat the average Elite 16 club by on a neutral floor. Two things go into it. The club rating comes from results, every final score in the BAL and Road to BAL since 2021, with the strength of the opponent taken into account and recent games counting more. The roster rating comes from the players, each rated on his box scores in both competitions and weighted by how many minutes he is expected to play. For the West, that is FIBA's final roster. A newcomer the database has never seen play is counted as an average player, because the model has nothing else to go on.

2. Turn ratings into the odds of each game. The gap between two clubs' power ratings is the expected margin of a game between them. A club playing in its own country gets about four points on top, the home edge measured across every BAL and Road to BAL game since 2021. In the Elite 16 that applies to JCA Kings in Abidjan and Nairobi City Thunder in Nairobi. Real games rarely finish on the expected margin, so every simulated game adds a random swing the size of the typical miss in past games, about 15 points. That makes a five-point favourite win about 63% of the time, and a 15-point favourite about 84%.

3. Play the tournament. Each simulation plays every group game, ranks the groups by wins, then head-to-head, then point difference, and plays the semi-finals, the third-place games and the division finals. The two third-place winners are then compared, by Elite 16 wins and then point difference, because FIBA has not published how it ranks them. A club's "BAL ticket" percentage is the share of the 100,000 simulations in which it reaches the BAL.

A 40% chance does not mean the model expects a club to fall short. It means the club reaches the BAL in four of every ten versions of the tournament, and upsets are built in. The technical detail, and how well the model predicted past seasons, is in the box at the end.

The ranking at a glance

#	Club	Group	Results	Roster	Power	Final	BAL ticket	Division title
1	Al Ittihad	West B	+13.0	+1.4	+14.5	81%	92%	65%
2	Nairobi City Thunder	East A	+5.7	+1.4	+7.1	55%	67%	36%
3	Nadi Basket Staoueli	West B	+4.7	-0.3	+4.4	49%	56%	15%
4	Urunani BBC	East A	+6.3	+2.5	+8.8	45%	54%	23%
5	Dar City	East B	+3.6	+2.8	+6.4	36%	51%	18%
6	Namuwongo Blazers	East B	+1.6	+3.1	+4.6	29%	41%	12%
7	JCA Kings	West A	-1.1	-1.1	-2.2	24%	33%	8%
8	Stade Malien	West A	+3.6	-1.9	+1.7	23%	31%	7%
9	Ferroviário da Beira	East B	-1.4	+2.6	+1.2	17%	23%	5%
10	Avenir du Rail	West A	+0.3	-1.8	-1.5	13%	17%	3%
11	Patriot BC	East A	-0.1	+1.6	+1.5	13%	15%	4%
12	Spintex Knights	West A	-7.1	+1.4	-5.6	5%	6%	1%
13	Munali Suns	East A	-3.2	+0.7	-2.5	5%	6%	1%
14	Nabaya Sofas	West B	-6.4	-1.9	-8.4	4%	4%	under 1%
15	Espoir BC	West B	-4.7	-5.9	-10.5	2%	2%	under 1%
16	Dolphins	East B	-14.9	-4.6	-19.5	under 1%	under 1%	under 1%

All three ratings are in points per game against the average Elite 16 club on a neutral floor. Results is the club rating, and Power is Results plus Roster. JCA Kings and Nairobi City Thunder add about four points in every game, at home. "Final" is the chance of reaching the division final, "BAL ticket" the chance of qualifying by either route. The roster rating counts for less than the club rating because, tested on past games, results predicted the next result better than box scores did.

Tier 1: the favourite

1. Al Ittihad (Libya) · West, Group B

BAL ticket 92% · Division title 65% · Power +14.5

No club in the field comes close, and the final roster made them stronger. Al Ittihad won Group A in Tripoli 3-0 by 51 points, beating Nadi Basket Staoueli 93-69, Kriol Star 86-66 and Stade Malien 74-67. Those were home games, and the model now takes the home edge out of them. Their club rating is still the second-highest of any club in the database, behind only Al Ahli Tripoli.

For the Elite 16 they have added Antino Jackson Jr., who won the 2026 BAL with RSSB Tigers, and the Puerto Rican centre Ismael Romero, who played at the Paris 2024 Olympics. Romero has no BAL or Road to BAL box score, so the model counts him as an average player, which almost certainly undersells him. They join Mohamed Sadi (15.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists in the group phase), Ivan Almeida (15.3 points, 8.7 rebounds), Keron Deshields (17.7 points) and the South Sudan international Deng Deng. The model makes them a 23-point favourite over Nabaya Sofas and 25 over Espoir BC.

The question: the club rating rests on three games. Al Ittihad have no games in The BAL Report's records before this October. The roster, built on players with long BAL careers, is what keeps the model from doubting them.

Player to watch: Sadi. He had 24 points, 13 rebounds and five steals against Kriol Star, and the offence runs through him.

Tier 2: better than even

2. Nairobi City Thunder (Kenya) · East, Group A

BAL ticket 67% · Division title 36% · Power +7.1

The update's biggest winner. Nairobi host the East division, so every game they play in the Elite 16 is a home game, worth about four points. They are also the two-time defending champions of the East: they won the division final in 2025 (99-86 over Kriol Star) and in 2026 (94-84 over Johannesburg Giants), and went 12-1 in the Road to BAL across those two editions. In the 2026 BAL they beat the eventual champions, RSSB Tigers, 101-92.

The question: Nairobi have not played since April, and their Elite 16 roster has not been published. Their roster rating is built on the 2026 rotation, led by Tylor Ongwae (13.7 points), Albert Odero (17.7) and Lance Thomas (12.0).

Game to watch: Urunani BBC. Urunani have the higher power rating, but at home Nairobi are 2.5-point favourites, and the winner is likely to top the group.

3. Nadi Basket Staoueli (Algeria) · West, Group B

BAL ticket 56% · Division title 15% · Power +4.4

Staoueli lost the most from the group phase to the final roster. Hichem Dekakene (16.0 points) and Abdellah Hamdini, who played about 45 minutes a game between them and both rated above average, are not on it. In come Kurt-Curry Wegscheider, who has played in the BAL and the Road to BAL, and the American forward Corey Manigault, who has no box score in either. Mohamed Harat (17.3 points, 8.7 rebounds) is still their best player.

They stay third because of the draw. Staoueli are clear favourites over Espoir and Nabaya, so they reach the semi-finals 80% of the time, usually as the runner-up. There they meet the winner of West Group A, and the model makes Staoueli the favourite against every club in it, JCA Kings at home included.

The question: what happens after the semi-final. Both finalists qualify, so the semi-final is the game that decides it. The most likely West final, in 39% of the simulations, is a rematch of the 93-69 game against Al Ittihad, who would be ten-point favourites for the title.

4. Urunani BBC (Burundi) · East, Group A

BAL ticket 54% · Division title 23% · Power +8.8

The highest power rating in the East, and still fourth, because they share a group with Nairobi on Nairobi's floor. Urunani won Group D in Hoima 4-0 by 90 points. In 2025 they went 8-1, lost the semi-final to Kriol Star 90-82, won the third-place game, and did not play in the BAL. Their roster is one of the most balanced in the field: Mahamane Coulibaly (19.5 points), Cheikh Diallo (19.3 points, 11 threes) and Jeffery Stubbs (6.8 assists) all rate well above average.

The question: the big margins came against the bottom of the group. Against the two Group D clubs who also reached the Elite 16, Urunani won by five (84-79 over Patriot BC) and by two (81-79 over Namuwongo Blazers). Patriot is in their Elite 16 group again.

5. Dar City (Tanzania) · East, Group B

BAL ticket 51% · Division title 18% · Power +6.4

The club the third-place route helps most. Dar City finished third in the East in 2026 and went to the BAL anyway, where they went 3-4 and reached the quarter-finals, winning the first game of that series 88-82 against Petro de Luanda. Their 2026 rotation rates as the second-best roster in the field. It was led by Nisre Zouzoua (20.4 points over 14 games in both competitions), Raphiael Putney (21.4) and David Michineau (20.8).

Their group is by far the weaker of the East's two, which gives them a 78% chance of the semi-finals. From there, only 36% reach the final, because the semi-final is usually against Nairobi or Urunani. The rest of Dar City's chance comes through the third-place game.

The question: like Nairobi, Dar City have not played since May, and their roster is unknown.

Tier 3: in the mix

6. Namuwongo Blazers (Uganda) · East, Group B

BAL ticket 41% · Division title 12% · Power +4.6

The best roster in the field by the roster rating. Namuwongo had the best point difference in Group D, +109 in four games, and one loss, 81-79 to Urunani. The Blazers have the most BAL experience in the East. Peter Olisemeka averages 13.5 rebounds, and Johnathan Jordan 7.8 assists. Their highest-rated player, and the highest-rated in the field, plays fewer minutes: Peter Obleng, with 13.8 points in 18.7 minutes a game.

The question: Dar City. The two met in the 2026 group phase, and Dar City won 83-70. The model makes Dar City a two-point favourite this time.

7. JCA Kings (Ivory Coast) · West, Group A

BAL ticket 33% · Division title 8% · Power -2.2

The other host, and the other club the update moves most, up from 16%. JCA Kings were West runners-up in 2026 and went 0-5 in the BAL. Only one player from their 2026 rotation, Aboubakr Gbane, is on the final roster. The new one is built around Samba Fall, who played in the BAL for ASC Ville de Dakar in 2025 and 2026, and Trevon Duval, who played briefly in the NBA for the Milwaukee Bucks. Duval has no BAL or Road to BAL box score, so the model counts him as an average player.

What carries them is the venue. Every West game is in Abidjan, and the four-point home edge makes JCA Kings co-favourites in Group A, with a 35% chance of winning it. Against Stade Malien, the model makes it a coin flip.

The question: Duval. The model cannot rate a player it has never seen in these competitions, and he is the kind of import who could make that look foolish.

8. Stade Malien (Mali) · West, Group A

BAL ticket 31% · Division title 7% · Power +1.7

Stade Malien finished 1-2 in Group A, and their only win was the 20-0 walkover against Kriol Star. On the floor they lost twice. Their club rating stays positive because the model remembers more than three games: they reached the West final in 2025, losing 71-68 to Al Ahli Tripoli, and went 5-3 in the 2023 BAL.

The roster rating marks them down, and the reason is depth. Kelvin Amayo (23.0 points, 7.5 assists, 25 BAL games), Rolly Fula Nganga (20.0 points, eight threes in two games) and Abdoul Karim Coulibaly (13.5 points) each played more than 33 minutes a game in the group phase. The eight others who got on the floor scored 15.5 points a game between them. The final roster adds the guard Damaria Franklin, whom FIBA names as one to watch, but he has no box score in these competitions yet.

9. Ferroviário da Beira (Mozambique) · East, Group B

BAL ticket 23% · Division title 5% · Power +1.2

Ferroviário scored more than any other club in the group phase, 485 points in five games, and won Group E's point difference by a distance (+115). The one loss, 87-85, was to Munali Suns. Their roster rates among the best in the field. Joshua Thomas (21.4 points) is one of its highest-rated players, alongside Ke Tarrious Bouchum (20.0 points, 8.2 rebounds, 4.4 assists) and Ayade Munguambe, who has made 12 threes.

The question: the recent history behind the club rating. In 2026 Ferroviário reached the semi-finals, lost 109-70 to Nairobi, then lost the third-place game 92-77 to Dar City, who are in their Elite 16 group again.

10. Avenir du Rail (Congo) · West, Group A

BAL ticket 17% · Division title 3% · Power -1.5

Avenir du Rail won Group C in Brazzaville 3-0, but by a combined 15 points: 66-60, 81-75 and 62-59. Their final roster drops two of the group-phase rotation and adds the Nigerian forward Franklin Agunanne, whom FIBA describes as dominant in the paint. He has no box score in these competitions, so he counts as average. Samuel Mouyayangui (18.0 points) and Edlain Elenga (12.7 rebounds) are still their best-rated players.

11. Patriot BC (South Sudan) · East, Group A

BAL ticket 15% · Division title 4% · Power +1.5

Patriot have the names: Ater Majok, with 43 BAL games, and the 2022 BAL MVP Michael Dixon. Their most productive player has been Nyang Wek (16.5 points, 7.8 rebounds). They went 2-2 in Group D, losing by five to Urunani and by four to Namuwongo.

The question: the hardest draw in the field. Patriot's power rating is higher than those of two clubs ranked above them, JCA Kings and Ferroviário, but Patriot share a group with Urunani and with Nairobi at home. Only 30% of the simulations put them in the semi-finals.

Tier 4: long shots

12. Spintex Knights (Ghana) · West, Group A

BAL ticket 6% · Power -5.6

This is the model's biggest disagreement with the standings. Spintex swept Group B 3-0 by 49 points, and their final roster keeps almost all of that team. But they went 4-9 across the previous two Road to BAL editions, and their three wins came against clubs the model knows little about. The roster rating is kinder: Benjamin Ashitei (18.3 points, and 10 of 13 from the field against Energie BBC) is the second-highest-rated player in the field, and Khyree Temple (19.7 points, 13.0 rebounds) and James Amotoe (11.0 assists) are close behind. Their first chance to prove the model wrong is a rematch of the 2026 semi-final against JCA Kings, this time in Abidjan.

13. Munali Suns (Zambia) · East, Group A

BAL ticket 6% · Power -2.5

The only unbeaten five-game record of the group phase, and still a long shot. Munali won Group E 5-0, but two of the wins came by one and two points (70-69 over Harare Kings, 87-85 over Ferroviário), and 40 of their +76 came in one game, against Dolphins. Then the draw put them with Urunani and with Nairobi at home. Douglas Kandulu (15.0 points, 14.0 rebounds a game) is one of the highest-rated players in the field.

14. Nabaya Sofas (Guinea) · West, Group B

BAL ticket 4% · Power -8.4

Nabaya finished second in Group B behind Allen Fordham (21.7 points) and Alseny Bah (16.7 rebounds a game, including 21 in one), and both are on the final roster. Abdoulaye Diene, who played 33 minutes a game in the group phase, is not. The model also rates them low because their group gave it little to measure against: Energie BBC had never played in the database before, and NPA Pythons' only earlier games are from 2021.

15. Espoir BC (Gabon) · West, Group B

BAL ticket 2% · Power -10.5

The lowest roster rating in the field. Espoir went 1-2 in Group C and advanced. Their leading rebounder, Elvis Mpeti Mbwaka (13.0 a game), is not on the final roster. Ronald Kolmia scores 20.7 points a game, but his box scores as a whole rate just below average. Hermann Igouwe (16.7 points), the captain, is their highest-rated player. Al Ittihad and Staoueli in the same group leave almost no room.

16. Dolphins (Botswana) · East, Group B

BAL ticket under 1% · Power -19.5

Dolphins went 3-2 in Group E but were outscored by 56 points, losing 96-56 to Munali Suns and 100-68 to Ferroviário. Dallan Coleman made 12 threes. The model makes them a 26-point underdog against Dar City.

The likeliest finals

In the West, the most likely final is Al Ittihad against Nadi Basket Staoueli (39% of simulations), then Al Ittihad against JCA Kings (14%) and Al Ittihad against Stade Malien (14%). In the East, Nairobi against Urunani leads at 23%, followed by Nairobi against Dar City (12%).

Every result and box score is on The BAL Report's Road to BAL 2027 page. This ranking will be out of date after the first Elite 16 game day.